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Ordinarily, the National Football League's Head Coach of the Year honor adheres to a simple pattern. It frequently functions as a type of apology. Sorry we got wrong your franchise in our preseason projections.

Theoretically, it's a direct line: the coach who oversaw the largest improvement is handed the prize. In reality, it creates an annual argument about expectations and whether we're genuinely rewarding superior leadership or simply the biggest shock.

But the current competition is distinctly different. The pool of nominees is unusually talented. It has been the year of comebacks. The league has been unpredictable, with reigning conference winners fading and longtime also-rans rising together. In an ordinary year, a coach leading the his team to the top of the conference would make him the overwhelming favorite. Yet in this chaotic and fun year, he's up against five other outstanding coaches.

Below is how the hypothetical ballot could look.

5) Ben Johnson, Chicago Bears, Their Record

Voters for Coach of the Year voters adore signal-callers. History shows this. Sean McVay in 2017. Kevin Stefanski in 2020. Brian Daboll in 2022. If you transform a quarterback, you're halfway home.

Ben Johnson didn't merely fixed his young quarterback; he's unlocked him. Given a proper ecosystem, the QB has been given the chance to display his special talent. Since Week 9, the Chicago offense rank fourth in offensive EPA per play. That's not a hot streak – it's prolonged dominance. Under Johnson, the quarterback has become more confident, far less careless, and has willingly surrendered to the scheme rather than freelancing. It is an attack designed solely in the coach's image: a physical run game, a steady helping of play-action passes and a imaginative passing attack that springs wide-open targets consistently. The QB has taken advantage. And when easy reads haven't been there, he's been capable to create magic out of broken plays.

Johnson arrived to the Bears with a defined offensive blueprint. Virtually every gamble – rebuilding the offensive line, highlighting the tight ends, transforming Williams into a timing-based thrower – has worked. That's rare for a rookie skipper. And it's even more uncommon still for a leader who entered the building with the kind of hype he did. For two straight offseasons, he was the hottest name on the head coaching carousel. However when it comes to hiring a head coach, there are zero guarantees. Remarkably, he has met the hype – and even surpassed them. He's proven not only to be a offensive dork but the type of culture builder that can inject fresh energy into an organization.

During a typical season, he would be the runaway choice. But the current isn't a normal year!

Where Johnson's case comes a bit into trouble is on the defensive side. The Bears presently sit in the bottom third in defensive success rate. They are relying on turnovers, and takeaways are notoriously fickle. Defensive minds can emphasise creating turnovers, but nobody can guarantee it. He is on the ballot because the offense is sustainable. He's ranked lower because luck is doing an outsized share of the defense's heavy lifting. With a few bounces of the ball, the Bears would be several victories worse off. It's been an remarkable turnaround, and the core is established for long-term success. But he comes up short in this ranking.

4) Liam Coen, Jacksonville Jaguars, 12-4

The Jaguars' coach is in a similar situation to his counterpart. He's a fellow first-time leader who has masterminded a dramatic turnaround. During the crucial final weeks of the year, he has his franchise quarterback playing the most complete all-around football of his professional life. And he's also overseen the remaking of a defensive unit that now ranks number five in the NFL in EPA per play.

What's more impressively, Coen has mastered the off-field stuff, which wasn't a guarantee after his initial public introduction and some of his offseason moves.

The coach walked into Jacksonville with an exceptionally inexperienced staff. Unlike other coaches, who packed their staff with the ideal staff mix of new ideas and experience, he trusted first-timers. Starting with the head coach himself to coordinators to position coaches, the Jags are filled with rookies. That type of setup is intriguing in theory, but often fails in reality – with other teams are a cautionary tale – because everyone is figuring out a their job on the fly. Yet he has managed to bring everyone and everything together.

After an early hot start, there was a risk that the campaign would go off the track. A mid-year collapse caused the Jags stumbling again. That's usually when coaches overcorrect. He did not. Instead, he streamlined things. Jacksonville stopped chasing explosive plays and started seeking reliable ones. Coen recentered the offense around his playmakers and the ground attack, and encouraged Lawrence to use his mobility more.

The results are clear. The Jaguars have won seven games consecutively and will be the AFC's number three seed. He gets the slightest deduction in the standings because he took over a skilled roster, but he has demonstrated he can get the most out of that talent.

3) The Seattle Seahawks Coach, His Team, Their Record

Every Coach of the Year case has a pivotal moment. For Mike Macdonald, it was his QB choice.

Moving on from a incumbent, bringing in a new signal-caller and partnering him with an innovative play-caller could have ended the campaign in October. Rather, it defined it. By the mid point of the year, the new QB was an MVP contender. He has cooled off since that time, dropping to a lower rank in efficiency per dropback over the latter part of the schedule, placing him only one place ahead of other QBs.

Still